A Few Thoughts on the Recent Election

There are many lessons to be drawn from this election. As everyone acknowledges, it is a rebuke from the American public for the current war in Iraq, where we are in the ultimate damned if we do damned if we don't situation; As I heard it said on the radio this morning, there is not much support for bringing the troops home immediately because it would probably make things even worse, but at the same time there is not much support for keeping the troops there much longer because they don't seem to be making things any better. So the vote had less to do with arguments about what to do next than it did with frustration at the Bush administration for putting us between this rock and a hard place.

But there is more to it than that. Bush's fatal political mistake this year, one he belatedly attempted to correct in the final weeks of the campaign when he publicly disavowed his "stay the course" rhetoric, was an inability to connect with the American public about the reality of the situation on the ground in Iraq. The American public might have been able to stomach the situation in Iraq if Bush had more effectively over the past year acknowledged the problems with the military campaign and called upon America to make the difficult but important step (from his perspective) of continued sacrifice to overcomethe setbacks in Iraq. But Bush until very recently, when it was already too late politically, continued to paint a rosy picture of progress and approaching victory in Iraq that was out of joint with the actualsituation on the ground. The American public was left with two possible conclusions. Either their President was not being straight with them, or their President was ignoring reality. I believe that this impression, from the American public's perspective, was as much if not more important in this election than the actual state of the war inIraq.

Another problem the GOP had in this election cycle was the taint of scandal. Democrats are as prone to scandal as Republicans, but this time it was almost exclusively the Republicans who got caught with their hands in the cookie jar. Perhaps this has something to do with the fact that the GOP has had its hands on the steering wheel for the past 12years in Congress, and as we all know "absolute power corrupts absolutely...."

But astute observers of this election will realize that there was more to this election than just GOP gaffes. Bill Clinton's political genius was his ability to capture the political center. The party that captures that political center is the party that will lead in America, and in this election the Dems exhibited a renewed capacity for holding the center. They strategically ran candidates in conservative strongholds that allowed them to win House and Senate races in places like Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Montana. The radicalized bases in both parties make it difficult for both of them to hold to the center for extended periods of time, so usually the center goes to the party that is hungrier. Right now the Dems are hungrier, and have, for today, nailed a formula to appeal to the political center.

The story for '08 will beif that center holds. Losing a national election in the fashion that the GOP has is necessarily a time of identity crisis for the losing party. The question right now for the GOP is simply "who are we?" For 5 years the GOP's definitive identity has been strength in the war on terror. Due to a confluence of circumstances, that identity does not have the traction it once did (the reasons why would make an interesting debate for another day). The GOP is now tasked with the inevitable political chore of redifining itself to correspond with the chamging political landscape. To do so successfully it must negotiate some tensions within its own ranks, having to do with the aforementioned radicalized elements and the political center. To cut to the chase, the GOP must make the most difficult decision it has made in some time, ie. parting ways with the Rovean politics that has empowered its hold on the majority and the oval office for the past 6years. Hilary Clinton is oft criticized as a polarizing figure, but shehas nothing on Mr. Rove, whose avowed strategies are energizing the GOPbase and getting just enough moderate votes to hold power. This strategy worked like a charm for 5 years. But the landscape has, as ever, shifted, and I don't believe that Rove, as powerful a strategistas he has been, has shifted with it. Rove was an (evil) genius for a time, but his performance this year makes it highly dobtful that he can lead theGOP to victory in '08. His art does not capture the center.

On a final note, I believe the McCain or Guiliani campaigns are moretroubled than appears on the surface. I don't see how either of them appeal to the GOP base without alienating the very centrists who give them their crossover appeal. Perhaps a lesser known mainstream conservative like Romney is a safer bet to capture the center. As for me, where do I get an Obama '08 sticker? His politics may not be centrist, but I believe he has the charisma to make up for that with thevoters. Time will tell....